California Recall. Redux
Recently a student of mine, who happens to call California home and who will be voting absentee in the recall election, asked for my thoughts and opinions on the California Recall, and who would I vote for, if I was a California resident. Below is, verbatim, what I told my student.
First off, I don't agree with the California recall as a whole. I believe that once an election is held, then that's it. Even if new facts come to light after the election, if they do not include gross malfeasance, then the election should stand. In 2002, Davis was re-elected, the people of California knew what they were getting when he was re-elected, a big government guy, very left on social issues, etc.. The fact that Simon ran one of the most inept campaigns of the past half-century certainly didn't hurt the chances that Davis would be re-elected either. Having said that, let me also say this, elections capture a single moment in time, a snapshot if you will, and once that is gone it is verily impossible to re-capture it, granted I understand the frustration the people of California feel with regards to Davis, I share them when it comes to George W. Bush, but that does not mean I would support any recall attempt against the president of the United States (even if such a thing was indeed possible). Simply put, once an election is held, that should be it, there are no do overs when it comes to elections.
But, that position is negated by current California political reality. They are going to have a recall on October 7th, whether I like it or not, so, in the interests of answering the core question put to me, by my student, I shall endeavor to answer it as best I can.
Number 1 -- Voting for Arnold.
I can understand the short-term, gratification that can come from him winning, I really honestly can, however, when viewed objectively, the question is, just what can Arnold do to actually turn around the fiscal disaster that California is currently in? It is no secret that California is circling the drain when it comes to it's economy, but just what can Arnold do to stop that from happening? Answer: Nothing. The governor of California, or any state for that matter, is not a monarch, the purse-strings in California are controlled by the State legislature. And, despite Arnold's fiscal conservatism, I doubt very seriously he would be able to get much, if anything done, when it comes to turning around the economy out there. For the California State Legislature is controlled by the extremely Hard Left, and I doubt very seriously if Arnold can and would hold the line when it comes to denying them their fiscal agenda. Sure he has said he won't raise taxes, except only in a State emergency, and that's fine. However, that is not the same thing as saying he will not raise taxes, period. He does get into specifics in a recent op-ed piece he did for
The Wall Street Journal, but I seriously doubt he has the political savvy to actually be able to get the job done out there. Don't get me wrong, I actually like his fiscal conservatism, and I think if he was seasoned enough politically he might be able to actually engage in a little horse-trading to get his economic policies implemented, for after all politics is the art of the deal. And who knows, if he actually does win the recall, he might just surprise all of us.
Number 2 -- Voting for McClintock. I actually like this guy, alot. He has a extremely bright future in politics no matter what he decides to do post-recall. And unlike, Arnold, I would be willing to bet he does have the political savvy to get his personal fiscal agenda implemented if he were to win. But the question remains, can he win? The Republicans of California seem to think he can't, which to me smacks of cynicism. The state Republican party made up their minds that they cannot win with a true conservative, fair enough, but that completely disregards that in the last election, McClintock got more votes statewide than any other Republican candidate, including Bob Simon. The one drawback McClintock had coming into this race was the fact no one really knew who he was, but despite that, he went from single digits to double digits, without really any kind of support from the California GOP. Also, that cynical mindset completely disregards as well that despite the utter ineptitude of the Simon campaign, he only lost by 5% of the vote. McClintock is a politican, knows the ins and out outs of California politics, so that leads me to believe that had it been McClintock running instead of Simon, in 2002, he could have closed that 5% gap in the polls quite quickly, and this conversation - recall wise - would be completely moot. But that's fanciful thinking my part.
Voting Day; Who? Tough question in all honesty. I do not live in California, so I cannot answer this question with any degree of objectivity. However, it would be my advice to vote your conscience. If you honestly believe that voting for McClintock (assuming he is still in the race) is the right thing to do, then vote for him. If not, then vote for Arnold. If you think the recall is a bad idea, then vote no on the recall, and leave your vote for Davis' replacement blank. True your ballot might not be counted, but if you vote no, then what's the point of voting for a replacement? But do not sell out your conservative principles just because you want a governor with a little R next to his name. Agreed at this point, anyone would be better than Davis or Bustamante, however, which would you rather have come the next election cycle in 2004? A state economy that is still in the crapper, and have it be laid at the feet of a Republican, regardless of who? or would you rather Davis be in office, and have the mess laid at his feet and the feet of liberals who control the state, where it rightly belongs? I know, and you know, that if Arnold or McClintock get elected the chances of them turning around the California economy within the next year and a half is pretty damn slim, you also know what the state Democrats are going to say about it as well. This would be, ultimately, a giant feather in the cap for the liberals who currently control California politics. They would be able to sit on the sidelines and say, "Hey, look, you got your Republican governor. He wasn't able to fix anything, like he promised. So we were right, and
you were wrong." Or words to that effect. That is political reality, and you, me, and pretty much every other politically astute individual knows that.
So who should you vote for? Although the better question would actually be; Who would I vote for? McClintock. Granted the chances that he would get anything accomplished in California is a long shot by any measure, but it is far better than no shot at all, which is what I believe I would get with Arnold.